How will Nataka in Karnataka end?

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As we are aware about the political crisis going on in Karnataka, the situation from a bird eye view looks quiet messy having multiple scenarios in which it might come to an end.

Let us have a look at the possible scenarios that are expected post the political crisis.

The Numbers:

Starting with the composition of the Karnataka assembly that was before the crisis hit the government:

The Karnataka assembly has 225 members, including one nominated MLA. And half of this figure would be 113, which is required to propose the CM of that particular party.

Before the recent flock of resignations, the Congress had 78 MLAs, the JD(S) 37 and the BJP 105. The Congress-JD(S) also had the support of the nominated MLA, an MLA each from the Bahujan Samaj Party and the Karnataka Prajnyavantha Janatha Party, and one Independent.

The Congress-JD(S) coalition effectively had the support of 119 MLAs in an assembly where the halfway mark was 113.

This was before the resignations of 13 MLAs — 10 from the Congress, three from the JD(S) — pushed the Karnataka government into a crisis.

So, what do the numbers look like now?

If we assume that the resignations of the 13 MLAs are accepted by the Speaker, the Karnataka assembly’s strength comes down to 212 from 225. Correspondingly, the halfway mark comes down to 106 from 113.

Also, one Independent MLA who was previously supporting the Congress-JD(S) has switched sides to the BJP. So, the Congress-JD(S)’s effective strength comes down by 14 to 105. Simultaneously, the BJP’s support base in the Karnataka assembly increases by one to 106.

Now, let’s take a look at all the possible scenarios that may play out in Karnataka.

SCENARIO 1: CONGRESS-JD(S) REMAIN IN POWER

The Congress and the JD(S) would remain in power but with a radically different looking government. The 13 rebel MLAs would be asked to take back their resignations and would be settled by offering them cabinet positions.

The resignations of the Congress ministers Monday morning suggest that this scenario is already in play.

What happens to HD Kumarswamy in this situation? – Kumarswamy may continue being the chief minister of a revamped government or he may quit and make way for a new chief minister, perhaps from the Congress.

SCENARIO 2: BJP COMES TO POWER

As the numbers stand right now, it advantages BJP in Karnataka.

As we calculated earlier, the BJP currently has the support of 106 MLAs. And, if the 13 MLAs’ resignations are accepted, the Congress-JD(S)’s strength would be reduced to 105.

In this situation, the Congress-JD(S) government would fall.

The Governor may then choose to invite the BJP — the largest party in the assembly — to form the government. The party, with the support of 106 MLAs, would just be able to reach the new halfway mark of 106.

SCENARIO 3: FRESH ELECTIONS

Scenario No. 3 is an extension of the previous scenario. Everything remains the same as in Scenario No. 2 — the resignations of the 13 MLAs are accepted, and the Congress-JD(S) government is reduced to 105 in an assembly where the halfway mark is 106.

However, the Governor instead of inviting the BJP to form the government calls for fresh elections to be held in the state.

In this situation, either of two things could happen: HD Kumaraswamy could either be asked to remain as caretaker chief minister until elections are held, or the state goes under Governor’s Rule till polls are held.

SCENARIO 4: HUNG ASSEMBLY

The final — and distant — possibility is that the Congress chooses to walk out of the government, creating a hung assembly in Karnataka.

This scenario could play out if Rahul Gandhi realises that he still is the Congress president (he’s resigned from the post, but continues to hold until the party figures out the way forward) and asks his MLAs in Karnataka to withdraw support to withdraw support to the coalition government.

In this case, the 13 MLAs remain in the Karnataka assembly and the halfway mark remains at 113. No party would have majority in the resultant hung assembly.

What happens next in this situation is for the Governor to decide — he could place the state under Governor’s rule or appoint a caretaker chief minister to run a government until fresh elections are held.

Let us know if you guess the probable scenario in this situation.


via FPJ

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